Monday, March 12, 2018

Firearms Murders in the USA in 2016


According to the Center for Disease Control (CDC) there were 38,551 firearms related deaths in the United States in 2016. The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) identified 11,004 (28.54%) of those firearms related deaths in 2016 as murders. 

The American Foundation for Suicide Prevention reported that in 2016, firearms were used to commit suicide 22,938 times. The Washington Post's Fatal Force Database  reported that 963 people were shot and killed by police in 2016. The remaining 3,646 firearms deaths in 2016 may be attributed to other factors such as accidents, and justifiable shooting (self-defense).

While an exact number of gang related murders was not yet available for 2016, the National Gang Center's  previous years' "findings suggest that gangs were involved in approximately 15 percent of all homicides, underscoring the considerable overlap between gang activity and violent crime." If we accept the 15 percent estimate for 2016, the there were 1,651 gang related murders during that year. According to the National Institute of Justice "nearly all gang-related homicides involved guns (95 percent)". The National Gang Center  also looking at previous years' statistics has stated "In a typical year in the so-called "gang capitals" of Chicago and Los Angeles, around half of all homicides are gang-related; these two cities alone accounted for approximately one in four gang homicides..."

According to the FBI, "Some 33,000 violent street gangs, motorcycle gangs, and prison gangs with about 1.4 million members are criminally active in the U.S. and Puerto Rico today. Many are sophisticated and well organized; all use violence to control neighborhoods and boost their illegal money-making activities, which include robbery, drug and gun trafficking, prostitution and human trafficking, and fraud." 

The state with the most firearms murders in 2016 was California with 1,368 murders reported by the FBI UCR. Illinois had 799 firearms related murders in 2016, with 762 of those murders occurring in Chicago.

The United States population in 2016 was approximately 323-Million. With 11,004 firearms related murders in the United States in 2016, the firearms murder rate is expressed as a number as 0.00003407, or 3.4 per 100,000.

According to the National Vital Statistics Report, Volume 66, Number 5 (November 27, 2017) "Deaths: Leading Causes for 2015" of the 113 selected causes of death in the United States, "Assault (homicide) by discharge of firearms" was 107th. "Intentional self-harm (suicide) by discharge of firearms." was 105th out of 113 leading causes of death. It should be noted that most of the entries on the list do not involve intentional killing. Most causes of death referenced by the CDC involve some form of medical malady.

A chart from the FiveThirtyEight web-site shows shootings statistics from major US cities.

 
Shootings (as opposed to murders) are a better method of tracking firearm related crime, but unfortunately nationwide data is not available in the UCR shootings as it is for firearms related murders.

These are some of the firearms related statistics for 2016. But, I caution against drawing statistical based conclusions to firearms problems without considering other factors. For example, in 2016 there were 412,459 full-time law enforcement officers in the United States, and 963 people were shot and killed by police during that year. The FBI estimates there are approximately 1.4-Million gang members in the United States and National Gang Center statistics show around 1,651 gang related murders in 2016. Based on the statistic alone, you are more likely to be shot and killed by a police officer than by a criminal gang member. This of course does not take into account that police officers are acting to defend their communities from violent criminals, while gang members are committing the crime of murder.

Addressing criminal gun violence is important, but calling for bans and restrictions based on statistics alone does not seem to be the answer. The city of Chicago has very strict firearms controls, but there were 4,376 shootings in that city in 2016. California has the strongest gun control laws in the United States, but also had the greatest number of firearms related murders in 2016.

Based on the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), the annual number of self-defense gun uses in the United States is around 100,000 per year. Researchers generally view these estimates as more reliable because the NCVS includes a much larger sample size and it surveys the same households multiple times, which ensures that people are recalling events more accurately.

Having a firearm and being able to use it in a defensive situation is the most effective means of avoiding injury (more so even than offering no resistance) and thwarting completion of violent crime, such as robbery or assault. In general, resisting violent crime is far more likely to help than to hurt.



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